Latest Rasmussen

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Tuesday October 05, 2004 · 2:32 PM PDT

2004/10/05 · 14:32

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%

The right column shows:

Date        Bush    Kerry

Today        47.9    47.0 

Oct 4        48.6    46.1 

Oct 3        49.0    45.4 

Oct 2        48.6    45.6 

Oct 1        48.7    45.3 

Sept 30      48.5    46.1

I'd been a bit worried about how little bounce Kerry seemed to get Post-debate. While his numbers DID improve slightly from 9/30 to 10/2, the first day that included Post-debate numbers he actually dropped a point!

Sam Wang's excellent site provided some analyis of problems with Rasmussen's sample methodology:

Rasmussen now weights, and now his presidential tracking poll fluctuates very little. Because party ID and preferred candidate (Bush/Kerry) are strongly correlated, this means that his weighting procedure will always work to reduce the margin of the leading candidate. This may explain why his poll is so stable - statistically, too stable to be right. ... The real problem with weighting is as follows: The horserace result depends on assumptions on party ID. If these covary with sentiment, then real changes will be filtered out, and it will be very hard to learn from weighted data on who is ahead, a basic fact we want from polls.

However, the direction of the trend should be worth something at least, if not the actual magnitude.

The important thing for me is that Bush's number seems to be going down slightly...

If anyone has access to the internals/one day numbers, any further clarification would be much appreciated!

Cops at F9/11 in MA

Adam in Mass

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Sunday June 27, 2004 · 6:51 AM PDT

2004/06/27 · 06:51

Went to see it last night at AMC theatre in Framingham, MA

There was a Framingham town cop in attendance throughout the entire screening. He just stood by the exit... I've never seen a public cop standing guard inside a private business like that...

I didn't ask him why he was there... he was just doing his job, and it's tough enough w/o paranoid liberals accosting him. A lot of the folks who were there in the theatre were much more freaked out about it than I was. I think to some people viewing this film is a subversive act, and the police presence increased that impression for them.

The most logical answer is that he was there to make sure there weren't any interruptions, heckling, or other bad behaviour by Bush supporters or other riff-raff. Or he could have just wanted to see the movie, right?

I know some people were worried that he was there for more nefarious reasons, but what? Is he going to keep track of everyone there and then give them extra parking tickets? Report them to "seditionist central"?

It was still pretty unprecedented though, and it made me think about how a large number of moviegoers might be put off attending this movie if someone with a videocamera were recording them as they walked in...

Embarassing Bush wife-beater photo...

Adam in Mass

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Saturday June 26, 2004 · 9:07 AM PDT

2004/06/26 · 09:07

Bush censors photo:

Link to the story

Anyone manage to get a vidcap? Has this photo been posted anywhere?

Since the Bushstapo want to censor/suppress it, just like with the flag-draped coffin photos, I think it's the blogosphere's job to circulate it as widely as possible....

Tracking the Tracking (4 Polls w/ trends)

Adam in Mass

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Monday January 26, 2004 · 11:39 AM PST

2004/01/26 · 11:39

Zogby 1/23-25 1/22-24 1/21-23 Kerry 31 30 31 Dean 28 23 22 Clark 13 13 14 Edwards 12 9 8 Lieberman 9 9 7 Boston Globe 1/24-25 1/23-24 1/22-23 Kerry 37 38 35 Dean 17 15 15 Edwards 12 12 12 Clark 11 14 15 Lieberman 7 7 5 American Research Group 1/23-25 1/22-24 1/21-23 Kerry 38 38 34 Dean 20 16 15 Clark 15 17 19 Edwards 16 15 13 Lieberman 5 5 6 Gallup 1/24-25 1/23-24 1/22-23 Kerry 36 38 35 Dean 25 25 23 Clark 13 10 14 Lieberman 10 12 10 Edwards 10 9 11

8 new state polls, with California (finally!)

Adam in Mass

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Saturday January 17, 2004 · 1:10 AM PST

2004/01/17 · 01:10

So MANY new polls!

Polls in 8 states since monday alone. It never rains but it pours. After a long drought w/o CA numbers we get 2 polls in the same 24 hours.

The numbers haven't changed much since my post on Monday, but there have been so many new polls that I thought I should post an update. There's lot more analysis in Monday's post, that I think remains accurate.

Dean rose from 1859 on Monday to 1900 today, and Clark dropped slightly from 920 to 903. Dean has temporarily reversed his short term trend of dropping about 6.5 delegates a day since 12/20.

Click on "There's more" to view the numbers and breakouts by primary date. I've also included some links to historical numbers for comparison.

Kerry made gains in Iowa, offset by lost ground in NH. Dean leads him by only 5% in pledged delegate counts after New Hampshire (lowest since I started tracking)! No movement in Kerry's SuperDelegate numbers as a result of his Mo though. By contrast Clark and Dean have each picked up 4 and 5 Supers, respectively, who will come in handy if this race gets any closer!

Lieberman lost 1/3 of his dels through Feb 3rd due to the new DE poll (he previously led there.) In dates up to Super Tuesday, he now leads only in Rhode Island, and even there he is only tied for 1st w/ Dean and Kerry, with a very old poll. The data from other states suggest he is all but finished, but you never know... look at Kerry's surge!

Adam in Mass

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Monday January 12, 2004 · 1:10 PM PST

2004/01/12 · 13:10

Sorry for the delay!

I've been away on business for a week, and hadn't posted new numbers for 2 weeks before that, so I've got lots of new information. Sorry it took me so long to get caught up!

There have been some dramatic numbers changes. Back on the 20th, I predicted, at his current rate, Dean would have enough delegates to "clinch" (2162) by New Year's.

I was wrong.

In fact, Clark has made some significant gains in the Delegate counts, based on his consistent high performance in recent polls.

While trying to use polls to predict delegates is silly, using delegate changes over time to show trends is probably even sillier, but here goes:

Dean had 2003, and Clark 623, on the 20th. At that point Dean had been gaining at the rate of about 30 per day. I had been tracking from November 28th to 12/20 (a period of 22 days.)

Another 22 days later, based on current polls, Dean now has 1859, and Clark 920. Dean has dropped about 6.5 delegates a day since 12/20.

However, since 11/28, he's gained an average of 11.2 delegates a day. It's anyone's guess what will happen in the next 8 days: whether his current short term trend of losses will continue, or whether his longer term trend will return. After Iowa, however, there are going to be some dramatic shifts almost immediately, and it all depends on how the caucuses go.

Click on "There's more" to view further analysis and the graphic showing the numbers and breakouts by primary date.
Read More

Dean bat over time

Adam in Mass

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Wednesday December 31, 2003 · 2:57 PM PST

2003/12/31 · 14:57

Has anyone been tracking the hourly updates over time?

I am very curious as to the curve of contributions.

e.g.:

It looks like the bats start slow and finish fast.
I think that weekends are slow days, weekdays are much faster, holidays slow. Which begs the question, are people donating from work? Or after they get home?
Is there any correlation between certain events and bat speed?
Do "attack-response" bats fill up faster than end-of-quarter bats?
It would also be neat to compare bats over time, starting w/ the earliest and moving up to the most recent. Interesting indicator of the strength of the campaign's growth.

These data would help predict that bat movement somewhat, but would also be foiled by behind-the-scenes manipulations like when the staff decide to type in mailed/houseparty checks, etc.

A good day for Dean.

Adam in Mass

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Monday December 22, 2003 · 8:24 PM PST

2003/12/22 · 20:24

Dean picked up endorsements from West Virginia, Puerto Rico, and Illinois today. The total endorsements bring him into the lead in the SuperDelegate race, overtaking John Kerry again by 1 Delegate.

Click the image for a link to the full list of SuperDelegates. You can now view the endorsement date for all new endorsements.

Delegate counts update: Now with Graphs, Trendlines, and 187 SuperDelegates

Adam in Mass

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Saturday December 20, 2003 · 1:36 PM PST

2003/12/20 · 13:36

It's been a while since my last post, so I figured I should provide something special.

I started saving the numbers each day that they were updated, so that I can do graphs and other historical analyses.

Trends

Here's the first graph, showing 11/28 to 12/19 (click for a larger version).

You can see a dramatic bump in the polls around 12/9... hmm, wonder what that could be ;-)

Dean's numbers have been trending upwards at a rate of about 30.3 delegates per day. At a constant rate, he would probably have 2159 (enough to win the convention) by Christmas, however I think there will be a delay caused by the Christmas news cycle slowdown. Sometime between Christmas and the New Year, if polls continue to come out, he will clinch this (and by clinch it, I mean by my estimation, based on polls and endorsements. I'm not one of those Dean supporters who thinks that it's a done deal, so everyone can knock off and drink up)

For the rest of the data, click "There's more".
Read More

Superdelegates, big numbers changes...

Adam in Mass

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Sunday December 14, 2003 · 1:42 PM PST

2003/12/14 · 13:42

Thanks to Kenton Ngo, for sending me a list that Kerry has posted of confirmed SuperDelegate endorsements. This list is much more complete than what I've been able to find on other political Web sites, including Politics1, and on the other campaign's home pages so far. As a result, Kerry's SuperDelegate and total delegate count gets a big bump, and the total # of SuperDelegates accounted for goes up to 177.

Candidate / Endorsements Kerry 57 Dean 40 Gephardt 35 Clark 19 Lieberman 16 Edwards 10

Full breakouts here.

If anyone knows of any announced SuperDelegates that I don't have already, please let me know!

Other SuperDelegate news, posted by trix, is that after the Gore endorsement, 44% of the DNC Members (who are all SuperDelegates) support Dean. They surveyed 327 of 386 members, which by my count must include at least some governors, reps, and senators. Dean had 18 DNC members already (that weren't officeholders) as well as 22 officeholders supporting him. I would venture a guess that right now he has the support of about 170, giving him around 192 Supers. However, until I can verify all of these as endorsements or at least strongly leaning, I'm not going to add them to the hard counts.